College Football Playoff semis, New Years Six game previews -

A contentious decision by the College Football Playoff selection committee has rightfully elicited its share of criticism and outrage in the immediate aftermath. But it also delivered what looks to be an evenly matched four-team field, two competitive semifinal games and some fascinating pairings in the rest of the New Year’s Six bowls. As the Playoff debate roils on, let’s take an early gander at what to expect in the biggest matchups of bowl season.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)

Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal)

No. 1 Michigan (13-0) vs. No. 4 Alabama (12-1), Mon., Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN

You know who really feels bad for Florida State? Michigan. The Wolverines would no doubt have rather seen the Jordan Travis-less Seminoles in this one. In the wake of all the controversy over the top four selection, it did create an interesting and potentially impactful plotline: Alabama knocks off Georgia, which elevates Michigan to the top spot, while also knocking out Florida State and elevating the Crimson Tide. Forget the Noles: Would Michigan have preferred a No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup against Washington?

Regardless, credit to Bama, which improved from a team with no set quarterback that lost to Texas and labored against South Florida to a dangerous No. 4 seed that won the SEC and no one wants to face, despite the late escape against Auburn. Florida State may have been shortchanged, but Alabama offered a good enough justification in the eyes of the committee to make that decision.

The semifinals make for an interesting clash of styles. This one is a blue-blooded showdown and more of a defensive gauntlet. Both teams have top 20 units based on yards per play allowed and were top 10 in the FEI defensive ratings for the regular season. Can Michigan slow down an increasingly confident and dangerous Jalen Milroe at quarterback? And can the Tide stem the Wolverines’ rushing attack enough to keep the pressure on J.J. McCarthy?

Matchup to watch: Alabama’s pass rush against McCarthy. It felt as if Maryland offered a potential blueprint to slowing down Michigan in the Wolverines’ 31-24 victory on Nov. 18. The Terps held Michigan to just 3.3 yards per carry and limited McCarthy to 12 of 23 for 141 yards and an interception. If the Tide can limit Michigan’s ground attack and maybe even grab an early lead, perhaps a defense allowing 6.4 yards per passing attempt and with the ninth-best sack rate in FBS (9 percent per TruMedia statistics) can force McCarthy into mistakes.

Offense: Michigan: 6.12 yards per play (43rd in FBS), 36.7 points per game (14th)
Alabama: 6.36 ypp (30th), 35.1 ppg (19th)

Defense: Michigan: 4.27 ypp allowed (4th), 9.5 ppg allowed (1st)
Alabama: 4.94 ypp allowed (18th), 18.4 ppg allowed (17th)

Series history: Alabama leads 3-2. The last meeting was a 35-16 win for Alabama in the 2019 Citrus Bowl.

Spread: Michigan -1.5, O/U 45.5

Alabama snapped Georgia’s 29-game winning streak to boost itself into the CFP. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)

Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal)

No. 2 Washington (13-0) vs. No. 3 Texas (12-1), Mon., Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN

This one is rich with offensive firepower, but these aren’t finesse teams. Washington proved it twice against Oregon, outmuscling the Ducks for a pair of decisive victories. Texas showed the same with that early season road win against Alabama and then out-physicalling opponents down the stretch in Big 12 play. Both squads have been streaky at times. Those moments have come almost exclusively against vastly inferior opponents, which shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup, but one side going cold for a stretch or getting careless with the ball could ultimately spell the difference.

Both offenses are pass-first, averaging more than 33 attempts per game for better than 8.5 yards per attempt behind Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers. This game is also a late Christmas present for the All-22 film nerds out there who get to watch Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian and Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb attempt to out-scheme one another. Two of the most prolific and innovative play-callers in college football right now will get a chance to ply their trade on the sport’s biggest stage. Sarkisian is also going against the program where he served as head coach from 2009-13.

Matchup to watch: Penix vs. Ewers. Both are supremely talented NFL prospects with an arsenal of skill-position weapons, and Penix may well have claimed the Heisman Trophy by next weekend. Penix has the edge in yards per game (324.5), Ewers on completion percentage (70.7), and the two are neck-and-neck in yards per attempt and QB rating, although Ewers did play in two fewer games due to injury. Both have been spectacular, but are also prone to mistake-inducing lapses, including Penix throwing two interceptions in a narrow win against Arizona State and Ewers throwing two picks in the loss to Oklahoma. Whichever of the two plays the cleanest could be the deciding factor.

Offense: Washington: 7.23 ypp (5th), 37.7 ppg (11th)
Texas: 6.65 ypp (14th), 36.2 (16th)

Defense: Washington: 5.55 ypp allowed (66th), 23.6 (50th)
Texas: 5.04 ypp allowed (26th), 17.5 (13th)

Series history: Texas leads 3-2. The last meeting was a 27-20 win for Washington in the 2022 Alamo Bowl.

Spread: Texas -4, O/U 64.5

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Cotton Bowl

No. 7 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 9 Missouri (10-2), Fri., Dec. 29, 8 p.m., ESPN

If you count Washington and Texas, two teams that will change conferences next season, four of the six New Year’s Six bowls feature Big Ten against SEC matchups. This one is a Midwest tilt between one of the stoutest, most efficient defenses in the country in Ohio State and one of the most aggressive and opportunistic units in Missouri. The Buckeyes are in the top five in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed and ranked first in FEI defense through the regular season. The Tigers have a top-15 turnover margin at plus-9 and are top-20 in sacks at 35, but are also one of the most penalized teams in the country at 7.2 per game.

Offense: Ohio State: 6.59 ypp (18th), 32.8 ppg (33rd)
Missouri: 6.62 ypp (15th), 34.1 pgg (26th)

Defense: Ohio State: 4.12 ypp allowed (3rd), 11 ppg allowed (2nd)
Missouri: 5.41 ypp allowed (56th), 22.3 ppg allowed (41st)

Series history: Ohio State leads 10-1-1. The last meeting was a 35-14 Ohio State home win in 1998.

Peach Bowl

No. 10 Penn State (10-2) vs. No. 11 Ole Miss (10-2), Sat., Dec. 30, Noon, ESPN

More Big Ten vs. SEC, and this one is good on good: Penn State’s top-ranked defense against an Ole Miss offense that averages 6.5 yards per play and 9.4 yards per pass attempt. There are some coaching subplots here as well, with Penn State hiring a new offensive coordinator in Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas and defensive coordinator Manny Diaz a candidate for the Duke head coaching job. Plus, a chance for both head coaches — Penn State’s James Franklin and Ole Miss’s Lane Kiffin — to earn (or at least claim) a big-game win, something that has alluded them of late.

Offense: Penn State: 5.46 ypp (81st), 37.2 ppg (12th)
Ole Miss: 6.5 ypp (23rd), 34.8 ppg (20th)

Defense: Penn State: 3.91 ypp allowed (1st), 11.4 ppg allowed (3rd)
Ole Miss: 5.3 ypp allowed (48th), 22.3 ppg allowed (41st)

Series history: First meeting

Orange Bowl

No. 5 Florida State (13-0) vs. No. 6 Georgia (12-1), Sat., Dec. 30, 4 p.m., ESPN

Hell hath no fury like an undefeated P5 champ scorned? We’ll see. Florida State, which expects to have backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker healthy for this one, will no doubt be motivated to send a message to the CFP selection committee, though it remains to be seen if this team is capable of that without Jordan Travis behind center. That might depend on Georgia’s approach. Do the Bulldogs, having squandered a chance to three-peat, have a bunch of opt-outs, or will they also pridefully aim to prove they were one of the four best teams in 2023? Either way, there will be ample interest in a game featuring two programs that fully expected to be in the Playoff just days ago.

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Offense: Florida State: 6.42 ypp (27th), 37.0 ppg (13th)
Georgia: 7.12 ypp (7th), 38.4 ppg (9th)

Defense: 4.68 ypp allowed (10th), 15.9 ppg allowed (6th)
Georgia: 4.83 ypp allowed (13th), 16.6 ppg allowed (8th)

Series history: Georgia leads 6-4-1. The last meeting was a 26-13 Georgia win in the 2003 Sugar Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl

No. 8 Oregon (11-2) vs. No. 23 Liberty (13-0), Mon, Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN

Don’t sleep on this game. The Ducks may be heavy favorites and Liberty may have faced the weakest strength of schedule in all of FBS. But last year we witnessed Tulane come back to beat USC in the Cotton Bowl, in 2020 Cincinnati should have defeated Georgia in a Peach Bowl that went to the wire, and in 2017 UCF toppled Auburn in the Peach Bowl to win the national championship (as far as UCF fans are concerned). The Group of 5 representative has often put up a good fight if it doesn’t win outright. The question in this one will be whether Oregon quarterback Bo Nix elects to suit up (head coach Dan Lanning said he will) or if any teammates opt-out. If Oregon is at full strength or close to it, will the Flames’ own high-octane offense have enough to keep up?

Offense: Oregon: 7.78 ypp (2nd), 44.2 ppg (2nd)
Liberty: 7.27 ypp (4th), 40.8 ppg (5th)

Defense: Oregon: 4.95 ypp allowed (20th), 17.3 ppg allowed (11th)
Liberty: 5.52 ypp allowed (63rd), 22.7 ppg allowed (45th)

Series history: First meeting

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(Top photo: Andrew Dieb / USA Today)

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